Corona-virus paljon huhuttua levittyneempi?
Kommentit (176779)
Scientists question China’s decision not to report symptom-free coronavirus cases
Researchers say that excluding these people could conceal the epidemic’s true extent, but others say the practice makes sense.
Worldometeristä lainattua:
Patient is a 60-year-old woman with no travel history abroad in the last two years. She had a fever and cough on Jan. 22, went to the clinic four times and was diagnosed with common cold and other diseases. Symptoms worsened with shortness of breath. Diagnosed with pneumonia on Jan. 29, hospitalized on Jan. 30, transferred to the intensive care unit on Feb. 10.
Taiwanissa käännytetty potilas 4 kertaa pois ennenkuin sai keuhkokuumeen. Kuinkahan monta ehti tartuttaa kahdeksan päivän aikana.
Vierailija kirjoitti:
Worldometeristä lainattua:
Patient is a 60-year-old woman with no travel history abroad in the last two years. She had a fever and cough on Jan. 22, went to the clinic four times and was diagnosed with common cold and other diseases. Symptoms worsened with shortness of breath. Diagnosed with pneumonia on Jan. 29, hospitalized on Jan. 30, transferred to the intensive care unit on Feb. 10.
Taiwanissa käännytetty potilas 4 kertaa pois ennenkuin sai keuhkokuumeen. Kuinkahan monta ehti tartuttaa kahdeksan päivän aikana.
Taiwanin THL...
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478 tartuntaa eilen.
Tilanne näyttää paremmalta!Tämä johtuu laskutavasta sekä siitä, että testitarvikkeita ei ole. Tai ihan siitä, että Kiina ei kerro tartuntojen lukumäärää.
Tai sitten tämä on mutanttivirus, joka aikansa riehuttuaan yhtäkkiä lopettaa tartuttamisen. Noin vaan.
Yleensä tartuntataudeissa tartunnat hiipuvat, eivät romahda, niinkuin nyt. Eilen noin 2000, tänään noin 400.Älä viitsi pyöristellä niitä lukuja oman mielesi mukaan. Eilen tartuntoja 1868, tänään laskutavasta johtuen joko 478 tai 615.
No, joillekin meistä riittää noin-arvot. Sivusto, jota käytän, antaa tartuntojen määräksi 392. Eli noin 400, koska määrä ei ole kiveen hakattu.
Niin. Saahan sitä kivasti vähän lisää draamaa kun käyttää lukuja joista itse tykkää.
Lukuja on ihan sallittua pyöristää, koska se helpottaa niiden käsittelyä. Varsinkin isot luvut on järkevämpi laittaa johonkin pakettiin, eikä kuljettaa jokaista pientä palasta mukana. 75641 on helpompi jos se on 75000. Sitä paitsi, noi luvut ei ole edes tarkkoja, koska kiinalaiset ovat mitä ovat, laskutapaa muutettu moneen kertaan ja kaikkia ei ole mukana luvuissa. Joten miksi nipottaa?
Vierailija kirjoitti:
Scientists question China’s decision not to report symptom-free coronavirus cases
Researchers say that excluding these people could conceal the epidemic’s true extent, but others say the practice makes sense.
Menetin juuri viimeisenkin uskoni Kiinan lukuihin. Nyt siis tulee esiin Kiinan viranomaisten kertomana, että positiivisen testituloksen saaneita ei ole laskettu Kiinan tilastoihin, jos heillä ei ole ollut oireita.
"Researchers are concerned that China’s official reports on the number of coronavirus infections have not been including people who have tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms. They fear the practice is masking the epidemic’s true scale. But public health experts say China is right to prioritize tracking sick patients who are spreading the disease.
Since the early days of the outbreak, the country’s National Health Commission has reported daily infection counts, which infectious-disease researchers outside China have been relying on to model the outbreak’s spread and severity.
Earlier this month, officials from Heilongjiang province in northeast China announced that 13 people who had tested positive for the virus with a lab test but who had no symptoms had been removed from the region’s list of confirmed cases. Officials said that they were following the commission’s guidelines for reporting infections, which state that such people should be classified as ‘positive cases’ rather than ‘confirmed cases’. Only confirmed cases are noted in the commission’s official daily reports.
The situation in Heilongjiang has put a spotlight on China’s reporting guidelines. These had already been getting attention after they were updated on 7 February to allow physicians to confirm cases using images from chest scans rather than waiting days for lab tests. The change in diagnostic criteria saw infections in Hubei, the province at the centre of the epidemic, jump by nearly 15,000 cases in a single day last week.
Reporting requirements
Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, who helps to implement the guidelines, says that they have always required that positive cases not be counted as confirmed cases. Instead, those who test positive are isolated for 14 days and monitored by health authorities. If they develop symptoms in that period, they are classified as a confirmed case.
Wu says that a positive test doesn’t necessarily mean that a person is infected with the virus. Lab tests typically detect genetic material from the virus in throat or nasal swabs, but in some people the virus might not have entered cells and started replicating, he says. But it’s not clear whether such ‘carriers’, who test positive for the virus but are not actually infected, exist. “That is one of the big scientific questions,” he says.
But several infectious-disease researchers outside China who spoke to Nature disagree. A virus usually has to replicate inside a host to reach detectable levels, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York. If the virus is in a person’s nose but hasn’t infected any cells, then “I’m sceptical that virus in a nasal swab from this type of exposure would be detectable,” she says.
Omitting these cases from official counts gives the impression that the virus is more severe than it really is, says Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland in Brisbane. This could mislead other countries that are trying to prepare for the most likely effects of an epidemic of the disease, known as COVID-19, in their population, says Mackay."
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Etelä-Koreassa todettu tänään 31 uutta tartuntaa. Eilen todettiin 20 tartuntaa.
Jostain luin, että tuollakin on osa testeistä näyttänyt negatiivista ensin parikin kertaa, ennen kuin on saatu samalta henkilöltä sitten positiivinen tulos. Tällä välin ovat ehtineet tartuttaa muita, kun on luultu että ko henkilöllä ei tätä virusta ole, ja on päästetty kotiinsa.
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Scientists question China’s decision not to report symptom-free coronavirus cases
Researchers say that excluding these people could conceal the epidemic’s true extent, but others say the practice makes sense.
Menetin juuri viimeisenkin uskoni Kiinan lukuihin. Nyt siis tulee esiin Kiinan viranomaisten kertomana, että positiivisen testituloksen saaneita ei ole laskettu Kiinan tilastoihin, jos heillä ei ole ollut oireita.
"Researchers are concerned that China’s official reports on the number of coronavirus infections have not been including people who have tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms. They fear the practice is masking the epidemic’s true scale. But public health experts say China is right to prioritize tracking sick patients who are spreading the disease.
Since the early days of the outbreak, the country’s National Health Commission has reported daily infection counts, which infectious-disease researchers outside China have been relying on to model the outbreak’s spread and severity.
Earlier this month, officials from Heilongjiang province in northeast China announced that 13 people who had tested positive for the virus with a lab test but who had no symptoms had been removed from the region’s list of confirmed cases. Officials said that they were following the commission’s guidelines for reporting infections, which state that such people should be classified as ‘positive cases’ rather than ‘confirmed cases’. Only confirmed cases are noted in the commission’s official daily reports.
The situation in Heilongjiang has put a spotlight on China’s reporting guidelines. These had already been getting attention after they were updated on 7 February to allow physicians to confirm cases using images from chest scans rather than waiting days for lab tests. The change in diagnostic criteria saw infections in Hubei, the province at the centre of the epidemic, jump by nearly 15,000 cases in a single day last week.
Reporting requirements
Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, who helps to implement the guidelines, says that they have always required that positive cases not be counted as confirmed cases. Instead, those who test positive are isolated for 14 days and monitored by health authorities. If they develop symptoms in that period, they are classified as a confirmed case.
Wu says that a positive test doesn’t necessarily mean that a person is infected with the virus. Lab tests typically detect genetic material from the virus in throat or nasal swabs, but in some people the virus might not have entered cells and started replicating, he says. But it’s not clear whether such ‘carriers’, who test positive for the virus but are not actually infected, exist. “That is one of the big scientific questions,” he says.
But several infectious-disease researchers outside China who spoke to Nature disagree. A virus usually has to replicate inside a host to reach detectable levels, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York. If the virus is in a person’s nose but hasn’t infected any cells, then “I’m sceptical that virus in a nasal swab from this type of exposure would be detectable,” she says.
Omitting these cases from official counts gives the impression that the virus is more severe than it really is, says Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland in Brisbane. This could mislead other countries that are trying to prepare for the most likely effects of an epidemic of the disease, known as COVID-19, in their population, says Mackay."
Siis joku tässä ei ihan täsmää.
Kiina siis nyt väittää, että olisi testattu oireettomia ihmisiä, ja laitettu heidät karanteeniin 2 viikoksi.
Mutta miksi ihmeessä he olisivat testanneet oireettomia ihmisiä koronan varalta? Tuollakin Venäjän rajalla olevassa provinssissa siis, joka ei ole lähelläkään Hubeita?
Ja siis tilanteessa, jossa kiinalaiset lääkärit valittavat, että sairaaloissa ei ole ollut kuin ehkä 10 % testikiteistä saatavilla sairaiden ihmisten testaamista varten?
Eli onko Kiina nyt jäänyt tässäkin kiinni tilastoiden vääristelystä (ts. nyt maailma tietää, että he eivät ole jostain syystä laskeneet tilastoihin kuin osan positiivisen testituloksen saaneista), ja on keksitty tällainen ihmeellinen ja aika järjetönkin selitys asialle??
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
Vierailija kirjoitti:
Worldometeristä lainattua:
Patient is a 60-year-old woman with no travel history abroad in the last two years. She had a fever and cough on Jan. 22, went to the clinic four times and was diagnosed with common cold and other diseases. Symptoms worsened with shortness of breath. Diagnosed with pneumonia on Jan. 29, hospitalized on Jan. 30, transferred to the intensive care unit on Feb. 10.
Taiwanissa käännytetty potilas 4 kertaa pois ennenkuin sai keuhkokuumeen. Kuinkahan monta ehti tartuttaa kahdeksan päivän aikana.
Kuulostaa ihan suomelta tuollainen käännytysmeininki.
Vierailija kirjoitti:
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
all work no play makes Jack a dull boy
Miksi alapeukutat karanteenipotilaan päiväkirjaa?
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Scientists question China’s decision not to report symptom-free coronavirus cases
Researchers say that excluding these people could conceal the epidemic’s true extent, but others say the practice makes sense.
Menetin juuri viimeisenkin uskoni Kiinan lukuihin. Nyt siis tulee esiin Kiinan viranomaisten kertomana, että positiivisen testituloksen saaneita ei ole laskettu Kiinan tilastoihin, jos heillä ei ole ollut oireita.
"Researchers are concerned that China’s official reports on the number of coronavirus infections have not been including people who have tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms. They fear the practice is masking the epidemic’s true scale. But public health experts say China is right to prioritize tracking sick patients who are spreading the disease.
Since the early days of the outbreak, the country’s National Health Commission has reported daily infection counts, which infectious-disease researchers outside China have been relying on to model the outbreak’s spread and severity.
Earlier this month, officials from Heilongjiang province in northeast China announced that 13 people who had tested positive for the virus with a lab test but who had no symptoms had been removed from the region’s list of confirmed cases. Officials said that they were following the commission’s guidelines for reporting infections, which state that such people should be classified as ‘positive cases’ rather than ‘confirmed cases’. Only confirmed cases are noted in the commission’s official daily reports.
The situation in Heilongjiang has put a spotlight on China’s reporting guidelines. These had already been getting attention after they were updated on 7 February to allow physicians to confirm cases using images from chest scans rather than waiting days for lab tests. The change in diagnostic criteria saw infections in Hubei, the province at the centre of the epidemic, jump by nearly 15,000 cases in a single day last week.
Reporting requirements
Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, who helps to implement the guidelines, says that they have always required that positive cases not be counted as confirmed cases. Instead, those who test positive are isolated for 14 days and monitored by health authorities. If they develop symptoms in that period, they are classified as a confirmed case.
Wu says that a positive test doesn’t necessarily mean that a person is infected with the virus. Lab tests typically detect genetic material from the virus in throat or nasal swabs, but in some people the virus might not have entered cells and started replicating, he says. But it’s not clear whether such ‘carriers’, who test positive for the virus but are not actually infected, exist. “That is one of the big scientific questions,” he says.
But several infectious-disease researchers outside China who spoke to Nature disagree. A virus usually has to replicate inside a host to reach detectable levels, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York. If the virus is in a person’s nose but hasn’t infected any cells, then “I’m sceptical that virus in a nasal swab from this type of exposure would be detectable,” she says.
Omitting these cases from official counts gives the impression that the virus is more severe than it really is, says Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland in Brisbane. This could mislead other countries that are trying to prepare for the most likely effects of an epidemic of the disease, known as COVID-19, in their population, says Mackay."
Siis joku tässä ei ihan täsmää.
Kiina siis nyt väittää, että olisi testattu oireettomia ihmisiä, ja laitettu heidät karanteeniin 2 viikoksi.
Mutta miksi ihmeessä he olisivat testanneet oireettomia ihmisiä koronan varalta? Tuollakin Venäjän rajalla olevassa provinssissa siis, joka ei ole lähelläkään Hubeita?
Ja siis tilanteessa, jossa kiinalaiset lääkärit valittavat, että sairaaloissa ei ole ollut kuin ehkä 10 % testikiteistä saatavilla sairaiden ihmisten testaamista varten?
Eli onko Kiina nyt jäänyt tässäkin kiinni tilastoiden vääristelystä (ts. nyt maailma tietää, että he eivät ole jostain syystä laskeneet tilastoihin kuin osan positiivisen testituloksen saaneista), ja on keksitty tällainen ihmeellinen ja aika järjetönkin selitys asialle??
Onhan niitä testattu: vaimo sairastuu ja diagnostisoidaan - myös mies testataan.
Mutta tästä nyt liikkeellä (Scmp/cnn/Reuters/bbc -lähteissä) kahta eri laskutavan muutosta:
A) vaikka löytyisi virus testeissä mutta jossei ole oireita niin ei lasketa
B) hetken aikaa riitti oireidenmukainen sairaaksi toteaminen tilastoon pääsyyn, mutta nyt vain viruksen kantajiksi testatut taas lasketaan.
Kumpi lienee oikea muutos laskutapaan?
Jonkun sortin tilastojen kaunistelemista ja kriisin piilottelemista tässä tuntuu olevan joka tapauksessa.
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Scientists question China’s decision not to report symptom-free coronavirus cases
Researchers say that excluding these people could conceal the epidemic’s true extent, but others say the practice makes sense.
Menetin juuri viimeisenkin uskoni Kiinan lukuihin. Nyt siis tulee esiin Kiinan viranomaisten kertomana, että positiivisen testituloksen saaneita ei ole laskettu Kiinan tilastoihin, jos heillä ei ole ollut oireita.
"Researchers are concerned that China’s official reports on the number of coronavirus infections have not been including people who have tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms. They fear the practice is masking the epidemic’s true scale. But public health experts say China is right to prioritize tracking sick patients who are spreading the disease.
Since the early days of the outbreak, the country’s National Health Commission has reported daily infection counts, which infectious-disease researchers outside China have been relying on to model the outbreak’s spread and severity.
Earlier this month, officials from Heilongjiang province in northeast China announced that 13 people who had tested positive for the virus with a lab test but who had no symptoms had been removed from the region’s list of confirmed cases. Officials said that they were following the commission’s guidelines for reporting infections, which state that such people should be classified as ‘positive cases’ rather than ‘confirmed cases’. Only confirmed cases are noted in the commission’s official daily reports.
The situation in Heilongjiang has put a spotlight on China’s reporting guidelines. These had already been getting attention after they were updated on 7 February to allow physicians to confirm cases using images from chest scans rather than waiting days for lab tests. The change in diagnostic criteria saw infections in Hubei, the province at the centre of the epidemic, jump by nearly 15,000 cases in a single day last week.
Reporting requirements
Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, who helps to implement the guidelines, says that they have always required that positive cases not be counted as confirmed cases. Instead, those who test positive are isolated for 14 days and monitored by health authorities. If they develop symptoms in that period, they are classified as a confirmed case.
Wu says that a positive test doesn’t necessarily mean that a person is infected with the virus. Lab tests typically detect genetic material from the virus in throat or nasal swabs, but in some people the virus might not have entered cells and started replicating, he says. But it’s not clear whether such ‘carriers’, who test positive for the virus but are not actually infected, exist. “That is one of the big scientific questions,” he says.
But several infectious-disease researchers outside China who spoke to Nature disagree. A virus usually has to replicate inside a host to reach detectable levels, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York. If the virus is in a person’s nose but hasn’t infected any cells, then “I’m sceptical that virus in a nasal swab from this type of exposure would be detectable,” she says.
Omitting these cases from official counts gives the impression that the virus is more severe than it really is, says Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland in Brisbane. This could mislead other countries that are trying to prepare for the most likely effects of an epidemic of the disease, known as COVID-19, in their population, says Mackay."
Siis joku tässä ei ihan täsmää.
Kiina siis nyt väittää, että olisi testattu oireettomia ihmisiä, ja laitettu heidät karanteeniin 2 viikoksi.
Mutta miksi ihmeessä he olisivat testanneet oireettomia ihmisiä koronan varalta? Tuollakin Venäjän rajalla olevassa provinssissa siis, joka ei ole lähelläkään Hubeita?
Ja siis tilanteessa, jossa kiinalaiset lääkärit valittavat, että sairaaloissa ei ole ollut kuin ehkä 10 % testikiteistä saatavilla sairaiden ihmisten testaamista varten?
Eli onko Kiina nyt jäänyt tässäkin kiinni tilastoiden vääristelystä (ts. nyt maailma tietää, että he eivät ole jostain syystä laskeneet tilastoihin kuin osan positiivisen testituloksen saaneista), ja on keksitty tällainen ihmeellinen ja aika järjetönkin selitys asialle??
Uskomatonta. Mihin tässä enää luottaa heidän kanssaan? Kiina on nyt ihmiskunnan syöpä.
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Scientists question China’s decision not to report symptom-free coronavirus cases
Researchers say that excluding these people could conceal the epidemic’s true extent, but others say the practice makes sense.
Menetin juuri viimeisenkin uskoni Kiinan lukuihin. Nyt siis tulee esiin Kiinan viranomaisten kertomana, että positiivisen testituloksen saaneita ei ole laskettu Kiinan tilastoihin, jos heillä ei ole ollut oireita.
"Researchers are concerned that China’s official reports on the number of coronavirus infections have not been including people who have tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms. They fear the practice is masking the epidemic’s true scale. But public health experts say China is right to prioritize tracking sick patients who are spreading the disease.
Since the early days of the outbreak, the country’s National Health Commission has reported daily infection counts, which infectious-disease researchers outside China have been relying on to model the outbreak’s spread and severity.
Earlier this month, officials from Heilongjiang province in northeast China announced that 13 people who had tested positive for the virus with a lab test but who had no symptoms had been removed from the region’s list of confirmed cases. Officials said that they were following the commission’s guidelines for reporting infections, which state that such people should be classified as ‘positive cases’ rather than ‘confirmed cases’. Only confirmed cases are noted in the commission’s official daily reports.
The situation in Heilongjiang has put a spotlight on China’s reporting guidelines. These had already been getting attention after they were updated on 7 February to allow physicians to confirm cases using images from chest scans rather than waiting days for lab tests. The change in diagnostic criteria saw infections in Hubei, the province at the centre of the epidemic, jump by nearly 15,000 cases in a single day last week.
Reporting requirements
Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, who helps to implement the guidelines, says that they have always required that positive cases not be counted as confirmed cases. Instead, those who test positive are isolated for 14 days and monitored by health authorities. If they develop symptoms in that period, they are classified as a confirmed case.
Wu says that a positive test doesn’t necessarily mean that a person is infected with the virus. Lab tests typically detect genetic material from the virus in throat or nasal swabs, but in some people the virus might not have entered cells and started replicating, he says. But it’s not clear whether such ‘carriers’, who test positive for the virus but are not actually infected, exist. “That is one of the big scientific questions,” he says.
But several infectious-disease researchers outside China who spoke to Nature disagree. A virus usually has to replicate inside a host to reach detectable levels, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York. If the virus is in a person’s nose but hasn’t infected any cells, then “I’m sceptical that virus in a nasal swab from this type of exposure would be detectable,” she says.
Omitting these cases from official counts gives the impression that the virus is more severe than it really is, says Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland in Brisbane. This could mislead other countries that are trying to prepare for the most likely effects of an epidemic of the disease, known as COVID-19, in their population, says Mackay."
Siis joku tässä ei ihan täsmää.
Kiina siis nyt väittää, että olisi testattu oireettomia ihmisiä, ja laitettu heidät karanteeniin 2 viikoksi.
Mutta miksi ihmeessä he olisivat testanneet oireettomia ihmisiä koronan varalta? Tuollakin Venäjän rajalla olevassa provinssissa siis, joka ei ole lähelläkään Hubeita?
Ja siis tilanteessa, jossa kiinalaiset lääkärit valittavat, että sairaaloissa ei ole ollut kuin ehkä 10 % testikiteistä saatavilla sairaiden ihmisten testaamista varten?
Eli onko Kiina nyt jäänyt tässäkin kiinni tilastoiden vääristelystä (ts. nyt maailma tietää, että he eivät ole jostain syystä laskeneet tilastoihin kuin osan positiivisen testituloksen saaneista), ja on keksitty tällainen ihmeellinen ja aika järjetönkin selitys asialle??
Onhan niitä testattu: vaimo sairastuu ja diagnostisoidaan - myös mies testataan.
Mutta tästä nyt liikkeellä (Scmp/cnn/Reuters/bbc -lähteissä) kahta eri laskutavan muutosta:
A) vaikka löytyisi virus testeissä mutta jossei ole oireita niin ei lasketa
B) hetken aikaa riitti oireidenmukainen sairaaksi toteaminen tilastoon pääsyyn, mutta nyt vain viruksen kantajiksi testatut taas lasketaan.Kumpi lienee oikea muutos laskutapaan?
Jonkun sortin tilastojen kaunistelemista ja kriisin piilottelemista tässä tuntuu olevan joka tapauksessa.
Samaa mieltä viimeisestä lauseesta kanssasi. Muutoin sinulla on kohdassa B asiavirhe, johon pyydän linkkiä perusteluksi. Nimenomaan nimittäin oireettomia ihmisiä ei ole missään vaiheessa laskettu mukaan positiivisesta testituloksesta huolimatta.
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Scientists question China’s decision not to report symptom-free coronavirus cases
Researchers say that excluding these people could conceal the epidemic’s true extent, but others say the practice makes sense.
Menetin juuri viimeisenkin uskoni Kiinan lukuihin. Nyt siis tulee esiin Kiinan viranomaisten kertomana, että positiivisen testituloksen saaneita ei ole laskettu Kiinan tilastoihin, jos heillä ei ole ollut oireita.
"Researchers are concerned that China’s official reports on the number of coronavirus infections have not been including people who have tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms. They fear the practice is masking the epidemic’s true scale. But public health experts say China is right to prioritize tracking sick patients who are spreading the disease.
Since the early days of the outbreak, the country’s National Health Commission has reported daily infection counts, which infectious-disease researchers outside China have been relying on to model the outbreak’s spread and severity.
Earlier this month, officials from Heilongjiang province in northeast China announced that 13 people who had tested positive for the virus with a lab test but who had no symptoms had been removed from the region’s list of confirmed cases. Officials said that they were following the commission’s guidelines for reporting infections, which state that such people should be classified as ‘positive cases’ rather than ‘confirmed cases’. Only confirmed cases are noted in the commission’s official daily reports.
The situation in Heilongjiang has put a spotlight on China’s reporting guidelines. These had already been getting attention after they were updated on 7 February to allow physicians to confirm cases using images from chest scans rather than waiting days for lab tests. The change in diagnostic criteria saw infections in Hubei, the province at the centre of the epidemic, jump by nearly 15,000 cases in a single day last week.
Reporting requirements
Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, who helps to implement the guidelines, says that they have always required that positive cases not be counted as confirmed cases. Instead, those who test positive are isolated for 14 days and monitored by health authorities. If they develop symptoms in that period, they are classified as a confirmed case.
Wu says that a positive test doesn’t necessarily mean that a person is infected with the virus. Lab tests typically detect genetic material from the virus in throat or nasal swabs, but in some people the virus might not have entered cells and started replicating, he says. But it’s not clear whether such ‘carriers’, who test positive for the virus but are not actually infected, exist. “That is one of the big scientific questions,” he says.
But several infectious-disease researchers outside China who spoke to Nature disagree. A virus usually has to replicate inside a host to reach detectable levels, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York. If the virus is in a person’s nose but hasn’t infected any cells, then “I’m sceptical that virus in a nasal swab from this type of exposure would be detectable,” she says.
Omitting these cases from official counts gives the impression that the virus is more severe than it really is, says Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland in Brisbane. This could mislead other countries that are trying to prepare for the most likely effects of an epidemic of the disease, known as COVID-19, in their population, says Mackay."
Siis joku tässä ei ihan täsmää.
Kiina siis nyt väittää, että olisi testattu oireettomia ihmisiä, ja laitettu heidät karanteeniin 2 viikoksi.
Mutta miksi ihmeessä he olisivat testanneet oireettomia ihmisiä koronan varalta? Tuollakin Venäjän rajalla olevassa provinssissa siis, joka ei ole lähelläkään Hubeita?
Ja siis tilanteessa, jossa kiinalaiset lääkärit valittavat, että sairaaloissa ei ole ollut kuin ehkä 10 % testikiteistä saatavilla sairaiden ihmisten testaamista varten?
Eli onko Kiina nyt jäänyt tässäkin kiinni tilastoiden vääristelystä (ts. nyt maailma tietää, että he eivät ole jostain syystä laskeneet tilastoihin kuin osan positiivisen testituloksen saaneista), ja on keksitty tällainen ihmeellinen ja aika järjetönkin selitys asialle??
Onhan niitä testattu: vaimo sairastuu ja diagnostisoidaan - myös mies testataan.
Mutta tästä nyt liikkeellä (Scmp/cnn/Reuters/bbc -lähteissä) kahta eri laskutavan muutosta:
A) vaikka löytyisi virus testeissä mutta jossei ole oireita niin ei lasketa
B) hetken aikaa riitti oireidenmukainen sairaaksi toteaminen tilastoon pääsyyn, mutta nyt vain viruksen kantajiksi testatut taas lasketaan.Kumpi lienee oikea muutos laskutapaan?
Jonkun sortin tilastojen kaunistelemista ja kriisin piilottelemista tässä tuntuu olevan joka tapauksessa.
Taitaa motiivina olla avata taas kaupankäynti ja lentomatkailu. Antaa se kuva, että tauti olisi menossa pois ja kaikki on normaalisti. Tai sitten he vain eivät itsekkään tiedä mitä tekevät ja mikä on paras tapa toimia.
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Ne laivalla kuolleet, onko tarkempaa tietoa, ikä, kansalaisuus tai voiko nyt sanoa, etninen tausta?
Eiköhän siellä oo pääasiassa eläkeläis risteilijöitä.
Joo, semmoisia jo parhaat päivänsä nähneitä aluksia, jotka joutais jo romuttamolle.
Suomessa alkaa jylläämään maaliskuussa influenssa joten yli 65 v ja riski ihmiset nyt rokotuksille. 2 viikkoa kestää ennenku tehoaa. Vielä ehtii.
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Scientists question China’s decision not to report symptom-free coronavirus cases
Researchers say that excluding these people could conceal the epidemic’s true extent, but others say the practice makes sense.
Menetin juuri viimeisenkin uskoni Kiinan lukuihin. Nyt siis tulee esiin Kiinan viranomaisten kertomana, että positiivisen testituloksen saaneita ei ole laskettu Kiinan tilastoihin, jos heillä ei ole ollut oireita.
"Researchers are concerned that China’s official reports on the number of coronavirus infections have not been including people who have tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms. They fear the practice is masking the epidemic’s true scale. But public health experts say China is right to prioritize tracking sick patients who are spreading the disease.
Since the early days of the outbreak, the country’s National Health Commission has reported daily infection counts, which infectious-disease researchers outside China have been relying on to model the outbreak’s spread and severity.
Earlier this month, officials from Heilongjiang province in northeast China announced that 13 people who had tested positive for the virus with a lab test but who had no symptoms had been removed from the region’s list of confirmed cases. Officials said that they were following the commission’s guidelines for reporting infections, which state that such people should be classified as ‘positive cases’ rather than ‘confirmed cases’. Only confirmed cases are noted in the commission’s official daily reports.
The situation in Heilongjiang has put a spotlight on China’s reporting guidelines. These had already been getting attention after they were updated on 7 February to allow physicians to confirm cases using images from chest scans rather than waiting days for lab tests. The change in diagnostic criteria saw infections in Hubei, the province at the centre of the epidemic, jump by nearly 15,000 cases in a single day last week.
Reporting requirements
Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, who helps to implement the guidelines, says that they have always required that positive cases not be counted as confirmed cases. Instead, those who test positive are isolated for 14 days and monitored by health authorities. If they develop symptoms in that period, they are classified as a confirmed case.
Wu says that a positive test doesn’t necessarily mean that a person is infected with the virus. Lab tests typically detect genetic material from the virus in throat or nasal swabs, but in some people the virus might not have entered cells and started replicating, he says. But it’s not clear whether such ‘carriers’, who test positive for the virus but are not actually infected, exist. “That is one of the big scientific questions,” he says.
But several infectious-disease researchers outside China who spoke to Nature disagree. A virus usually has to replicate inside a host to reach detectable levels, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York. If the virus is in a person’s nose but hasn’t infected any cells, then “I’m sceptical that virus in a nasal swab from this type of exposure would be detectable,” she says.
Omitting these cases from official counts gives the impression that the virus is more severe than it really is, says Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland in Brisbane. This could mislead other countries that are trying to prepare for the most likely effects of an epidemic of the disease, known as COVID-19, in their population, says Mackay."
Siis joku tässä ei ihan täsmää.
Kiina siis nyt väittää, että olisi testattu oireettomia ihmisiä, ja laitettu heidät karanteeniin 2 viikoksi.
Mutta miksi ihmeessä he olisivat testanneet oireettomia ihmisiä koronan varalta? Tuollakin Venäjän rajalla olevassa provinssissa siis, joka ei ole lähelläkään Hubeita?
Ja siis tilanteessa, jossa kiinalaiset lääkärit valittavat, että sairaaloissa ei ole ollut kuin ehkä 10 % testikiteistä saatavilla sairaiden ihmisten testaamista varten?
Eli onko Kiina nyt jäänyt tässäkin kiinni tilastoiden vääristelystä (ts. nyt maailma tietää, että he eivät ole jostain syystä laskeneet tilastoihin kuin osan positiivisen testituloksen saaneista), ja on keksitty tällainen ihmeellinen ja aika järjetönkin selitys asialle??
Onhan niitä testattu: vaimo sairastuu ja diagnostisoidaan - myös mies testataan.
Mutta tästä nyt liikkeellä (Scmp/cnn/Reuters/bbc -lähteissä) kahta eri laskutavan muutosta:
A) vaikka löytyisi virus testeissä mutta jossei ole oireita niin ei lasketa
B) hetken aikaa riitti oireidenmukainen sairaaksi toteaminen tilastoon pääsyyn, mutta nyt vain viruksen kantajiksi testatut taas lasketaan.Kumpi lienee oikea muutos laskutapaan?
Jonkun sortin tilastojen kaunistelemista ja kriisin piilottelemista tässä tuntuu olevan joka tapauksessa.
Samaa mieltä viimeisestä lauseesta kanssasi. Muutoin sinulla on kohdassa B asiavirhe, johon pyydän linkkiä perusteluksi. Nimenomaan nimittäin oireettomia ihmisiä ei ole missään vaiheessa laskettu mukaan positiivisesta testituloksesta huolimatta.
Sulla varmaan meni kirjaimet sekaisin. Tuo vaihtoehto B oli nimenomaan viimeisin laskutapa, eli vaikka ei olisi testattu, mutta jos on riittävästi kliinisiä oireita niin laskettiin mukaan.
Vaihtoehdon A taas otin tuosta tekstiketjusta mihin vastasin, siinä joku sen oli boldannut. Olisiko ollut lainaus (englanniksi) Naturen sivulta?
Ensin siis diagnoosi tehtiin PCR:llä (analysoitiin nenänielusta otettava näyte eli tämä on se "korona-testi" siis), sitten CT:lläkin kliinisen epäilyn perusteella, ja nyt taas vain PCR:llä. Ja potilaat laskettiin tilastoihin, jos heillä ilmeni oireita.
Sekaannuksen välttämiseksi kopioidaan tähän Reutersin tämän päivän jutusta kohta diagnostiikasta:
"Initially, authorities were using nucleic acid tests to identify the presence of the virus, but such tests require days of processing.
So last week, Hubei introduced a new, quicker diagnostic method through computerized tomography (CT) scans, which use X-rays, to reveal lung infections, and to confirm the presence of the virus.
The new method of diagnosis meant that suspected cases of the coronavirus who showed signs of pneumonia in the CT scan chest X-rays, but did not test positive for genetic traces of the virus, were counted as confirmed cases.
That led to a surge of more than 15,000 new coronavirus infections for Feb. 12, and sparked unfounded fears that the virus was suddenly spreading much faster.
But on Wednesday, the NHC said it was removing that category of clinically diagnosed cases from its criteria for confirmed cases, meaning 279 cases would be removed from the Hubei tally.
The commission said the nucleic acid test was the preferred method of diagnosis.
As a result, Hubei, which accounts for most of China’s infections, saw a sharp drop in confirmed cases, as reflected in the data announced on Thursday, with 349 new confirmed cases tallied on Wednesday, down from 1,693 on Tuesday and the lowest since Jan. 25.
For Hubei, even if the authorities restored the 279 cases that were subtracted from the tally, the number of new cases on Wednesday would still be at least 1,000 less than a day earlier."